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In Depth Analysis of the July 15th, 2025 Weapon Changes (MP9 Nerf)
CS:GO

In Depth Analysis of the July 15th, 2025 Weapon Changes (MP9 Nerf)

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Official Patch Notes

[ GAMEPLAY ]

  • MP9 – increased recoil magnitude and substantially reduced jumping accuracy

Note: I have no information regarding the changes to the Incendiary Grenade's spreading speed as these changes are made outside of attribute changes.

MP9

The MP9's airborne accuracy has been increased to be more on par with other SMGs. Pre-patch it was noticeably more accurate than other SMGs.

Least Possible Inaccuracy While Airborne:

. Inaccuracy
MP9 Pre-Update 28.03
Mac-10 47.20
PP-Bizon 48.47
UMP-45 51.68
MP9 Post-Update 59.60
MP7 70.20
MP5-SD 70.20
MP5-SD 104.73

The MP9's recoil has also been increased. Its magnitude has increased from 19 to 21.

Here's a comparison of the recoil pattern pre and post update.

Raw Data
m_flInaccuracyJump = 0.018430 -> 0.050000
m_flRecoilMagnitude = 19.000000 -> 21.000000

My Thoughts

Bringing the MP9's jumping accuracy in line with other SMGs makes a lot of sense. It was an outlier in its weapon class and it was often frustrating to play against in the select situations. Players could jump to throw off the aim of other players and yet still consistently hit their shots even at medium ranges.

The recoil changes are a tad confusing to me though. The MP9 already has one of the largest recoil patterns among the SMGs, and while further increasing this will make it more slightly more difficult to use, its accuracy and damage remain unmatched at its price-point. Simply reducing its accuracy slightly or worsening its damage fall off with distance would have likely had a greater impact on its popularity.

I've updated the Weapon Spreadsheet with the new changes from this update.

NOTE: This spreadsheet is still using CSGO's attribute names as of right now. (ex: WeaponPrice rather than m_nPrice) These all function identically between CSGO and CS2, but I just wanted to clear up any confusion if you notice some names aren't quite matching up in the Raw Data sheet.

NOTE 2: The "Least Possible Inaccuracy While Airborne" value is InaccuracyStand + Spread + InaccuracyJump. This simulates first shot accuracy at the peak of the player's jump. If fired while rising or falling, the accuracy is worsened further.

NOTE 3: CS2 displays its inaccuracy values with the decimal point three places to the left of what CSGO did. For the sake of consistency with my previous posts and for readability, I'm displaying the accuracy in CSGO terms. Also it's just less 0s to look at.

11 Comments

  3. Booneington

    The jumping inaccuracy makes sense. No fun getting two tapped by a jumping mp9.

    The recoil being harder is interesting. I think this will push more people to trying other smgs or shotguns on ct side which will be a good change of the meta. I’ve already personally been enjoying the mp5 and it now might make even more sense.

    Orrrrr people just only buy the five-seven because that pistol is crazy! Time will tell

  5. readthetda

    The incendiary changes are controlled with cvars:

    “`
    inferno_spread_speed_mult 1
    inferno_spread_speed_mult_ct 10
    inferno_velocity_factor_ct 0.003
    “`

    “`
    Speed up the spread rate of the Incendiary until max number of nodes are created. slowdown < 1 > Speedup
    “`

    At a guess, this means that incendiaries spread at a rate 10x that of mollies, though I can’t be certain that’s the case. The velocity factor is equal to the pre-existing inferno_velocity_factor of 0.003

  7. Time_Professional385

    I don’t think this mp9 ‘nerf’ will change meta at all, tried it a bit and it’s still the strongest SMG in game by far.

    Burst shooting – [https://streamable.com/1odxij](https://streamable.com/1odxij)

    Run&gun/spraying – [https://streamable.com/uiz0tw](https://streamable.com/uiz0tw)

    Would be nice to see some variety but at the same time no weapon should be used to run&gun effectively imo and running accuracy is what needs to be nerfed with pretty much every weapon in the game.

  8. ApacheAttackChopperQ

    They need to leave my SMGs alone. I have to relearn it each time they update it. Just make it the same as it was in CSGO. It was never a problem in CSGO.

  10. BloodlustROFLNIFE

    Hey thanks for running the numbers bruh. Legendary member in the community

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