Recently I’ve seen lots of discourse about degster, broky, and others performances against top teams. I wanted to research how players performed against different tiers of ranked teams to see if some narratives were justified.
The first thing I did was collect data. I decided to use data from CS2 matches only (~20 months) to get a big enough sample for each player. I also only included players with at least 20 maps against the 4 different groups I collected data for. The 4 groups are:
Opponents ranked #1 to #5 (Henceforth referred to as Tier 1)
Opponents ranked #6 to #10 (Tier 2)
Opponents ranked #11 to #20 (Tier 3)
Opponents ranked #21 to #50 (Tier 4)
This resulted in 90 players that matched the criteria. For each of the 90 players I calculated:
-The difference between the combinations of tiers (Ex: Tier 2 rating minus Tier 1 rating).
-The standard deviation for the players rating across the 4 groups.
-The slope of the players rating across the 4 groups.
Here are some of the notable results:
-ultimate has the highest standard deviation and by far the biggest falloff from tier 3 to tier 1.
-Krimbo has the biggest falloff between Tier 1 and Tier 2 (0.83 to 1.07).
-jL may be the best “big game” player. His rating against Tier 1 is higher than his Tier 2 and Tier 3.
-The biggest Tier 4 and Tier 1 difference was a tie between Krimbo (0.83 to 1.10) and donk (1.26 to 1.53).
-YEKINDAR’s Tier 3 rating is 0.12 higher than his Tier 4 rating (41 maps in both tiers).
-As to be expected, nearly everyone has a positive slope (rating tends to go up against easier competition).
-JT has a 0.94 against all 4 tiers with at least 50 maps in each tier.
-floppy is the only player with a negative slope. His best rating is against tier 2.
-degster lives up to his narrative. He has the 4th lowest slope. He has a higher rating in Tier 1 and Tier 2 than Tier 3.
-NiKo, despite recent criticism, is extremely consistent. He has the 3rd lowest slope and 2nd lowest standard deviation.
Here are the 10 players with the lowest slopes (rating similar against all tiers):
1 floppy
2 JT
3 NiKo
4 degster
5 siuhy
6 flameZ
7 electroNic
8 Snappi
9 apEX
10 n0rb3r7
Here are the 10 players with the highest slopes (rating rises the most against easier competition)
1 yuurih
2 dupreeh
3 donk
4 Krimbo
5 ultimate
6 snow
7 Maden
8 story
9 kauez
10 Spinx
5 Comments
Interesting that the top 10 players with the least slopes are all support roles or igl except Niko degster and flamez
Interesting data, thanks for analysis. Is it possible to compare lan vs online matches the same way with the same methodology? Would be interesting to see who shines on lan vs T1/T2, for example, but falls short online.
Donk fraud confirmed ?
This is great data analytics and super interesting!
However, I don’t think it really answers the question about broky because the timeframe is too long. A year ago, broky was playing very well, and was practically carrying faze for the first half of ’24, but he’s fallen off a cliff in the past 6-9 months.
>-NiKo, despite recent criticism, is extremely consistent. He has the 3rd lowest slope and 2nd lowest standard deviation
His problem is on the last map not against tier1.