Winners of three of their last four games, the Florida State (10-12, 3-6) men’s basketball team hopes to keep the momentum going as they venture north to South Bend, Indiana. Despite a slightly better overall record, Notre Dame (11-12, 2-8) comes into this one reeling, having lost three straight and eight of their last nine. Six of those eight losses were by double digits, including a 76-65 defeat at the hands of the Louisville Cardinals earlier this week.
First year head coach Luke Loucks has been transparent about the reality of FSU’s season and named a goal of qualifying for the ACC Tournament (only 15 of the 18 teams make it). With both of these teams residing in the eight team jumbled mess of squads between 4-6 and 2-8 in league play, this is a game with massive implications on how the ultimate standings will shake out.
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Florida State has won five straight against Notre Dame and leads the all-time series 12-5.
Florida State Seminoles vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: How to watch, stream, oddsDateTimeWatch/StreamListenSpreadOver/UnderWhy Can FSU Win?
It’s been an up and down season for the Seminoles, but they are playing some of their best basketball the last two weeks. FSU is 90th in the country on Bart Torvik’s advanced ratings when looking at the whole season, but when just looking at the last 6 games that rating jumps to 54th. Notre Dame, meanwhile, is the opposite. The Fighting Irish rank 116th over their last 7 games vs 82nd over the full season.
The recent success has been largely due to defense and rebounding. After a string of embarrassing blowouts, Coach Loucks made it clear that playing time would only be given to those who did what they were asked at both ends of the court, regardless of whether shots were falling. That message was received and the intensity and focus on the defensive side of the ball has seen a noticeable uptick, which is something that usually travels more consistently than shooting. Notre Dame is a middle of the pack rebounding team in the ACC and a bottom tier shooting team, so FSU should be able to get stops if they continue to play with the same fire.
Chauncey Wiggins is playing some of the best basketball of his entire career, averaging 20 points and 4 rebounds over his last two games. That includes shooting 7-15 from deep and 8-9 from the stripe in those two victories. The 6’10 stretch forward could be a tough matchup for the Irish, who only have one player over 6’8 among players who have played at least 35% of the team’s minutes.
Why Can Notre Dame Win?
Despite FSU’s recent surge, the Irish still rank better than FSU on defense in league play. To be clear, both squads are below average, but we’ve seen this Florida State team fully capable of laying a stinker, especially if they struggle to generate offense in the early going.
Braeden Shrewsberry (son of ND head coach Micah Shrewsberry) is a sniper from deep, hitting on 42% of his 150 attempts on the season. The junior has five games of 5+ made threes this season, including an 8-10 performance in December. Florida State has been torched by perimeter shooters this year, giving up 40% or better in 7 different games. If the ‘Noles allow Shrewsberry to get in a groove, he could score 30.
FSU has just one win away from Tallahassee this season and zero wins outside the state of Florida.