Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Genius Sports outlook
Barry Jonas of Truist Securities on February 2 commented on a recent meeting with Genius Sports:
“We hosted investor meetings in Boston with Genius Sports CFO Bryan Castellani and IR Manager Brandon Bukstel. Investors were naturally focused on prediction markets and management hasn’t seen any negative impact but note potential upside should they gain comfort to work with them. The media business continues to be a unique part of the story with clear ROI for its partners. We reiterate our Buy rating, seeing Genius’ less volatile growth story as compelling. We are updating our model to reflect December analyst day targets, with no change to 4Q25.”
Macau GGR in January
Dan Politzer of J.P. Morgan on February 2 examined gaming in Macau:
“Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported January GGR of MOP 22.6 billion, +24% year-over-year and representing 91% of 2019 levels (similar to 4Q25’s 92%). The +24% year-over-year growth was above expectations that had risen throughout the month, coming in well above J. P. Morgan +16%/consensus’ +13% (per Consensus Metrix), and came despite low VIP hold (as per our channel checks). We believe there was likely some modest calendar benefit on New Year’s Eve timing (some play pushed from December to January), as well as Lunar New Year timing (began January 29 last year vs February 17 this year), with play during start of holiday often slower, but based on weekly GGR checks, we believe the level of play was fairly strong over the course of the month.”
New York online sports betting declines
Jefferies’ David Katz on February 1 looked at New York’s online sport betting hold, which fell “1,290 basis points week-over-week to 4.7%, the lowest figure since March, a notable decline vs. the prior week’s all-time-high of 17.6%. Every operator saw very significant decline in Hold, as the favorites New England and Seattle both won their respective NFL conference championship games. Flutter’s 5.6% Hold on the week led all operators, underscoring the challenges of the group. On a more positive note, this week’s statewide handle grew 2% year-over-year, however, statewide year-to-date handle remains down ~3.2% year-over-year, as the group continues to face difficult comps (e.g., statewide handle in the first four weeks of 2025 was up ~27% year-over-year).”
Las Vegas Sands in Macau
Chad Beynon of the Macquarie Group on January 29 wrote about Las Vegas Sands in Macau:
“Our core thesis around Macau (primer) relates to a consensus that has been too bearish and, at times, a market that has not been predictable. With Las Vegas Sands demonstrating more predictability and growth out of Singapore (number-one property in the world) and a market recovery in Macau, we remain positive on having exposure to the Asian gaming market recovery (Las Vegas Sands is 100% Asia-focused). While base mass trends have been lackluster, we view Las Vegas as a coiled spring once that business returns along with an irreplaceable asset in Marina Bay Sands. During the quarter, Las Vegas Sands repurchased $500 million of shares as well as $66 million of Sands China Limited (increasing the company’s ownership to 74.80%).”