WOODLAND HILLS, Calif. — All of the Los Angeles Rams’ goals are out in front of them. Playoffs. NFC West title. First-round bye.
But they have seven games to go to manifest that reality. With Sunday’s 21-19 win over the Seattle Seahawks at SoFi Stadium, the Rams put themselves in an enviable position as they near Thanksgiving.
Entering that battle of 7-2 NFC West teams, the Rams’ chances of winning the division would have dropped to 33 percent with a loss, according to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator. But when Jason Myers’ 61-yard field goal attempt fell short as time expired, Los Angeles’ win over Seattle placed those odds of a division title at 75 percent.
The Rams’ odds of reaching the playoffs are now 99 percent. And their chances of clinching the No. 1 seed are 37 percent, the second-best among NFC teams.
The simulator currently projects the Rams to finish 5-2 in the final seven games, which would get them to 13-4 and, based on current simulations, the No. 2 seed in the NFC behind the Philadelphia Eagles.
It’s why the Rams are going to approach this final stretch the only way they can — one game at a time.
“I know it’s fun when people pop up standings and things like that,” coach Sean McVay said. “You have to handle your business for it to stay the same or vice versa. … It’s the boring coach answer, but it’s also the truth that we can’t do anything except have a great week that leads to a quieted mind and peace in the process to go play with the courage that’s required and the stamina that’s required on Sunday night.”
But taking that one-game-at-a-time approach to the simulator can show how this picture can unfold for them.
If the Rams beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at SoFi Stadium on Sunday night, their odds of an NFC West title will jump to 80 percent. A loss will drop the odds to 61 percent. That’s because, despite Los Angeles’ five-game winning streak, the division race remains crowded with the Seahawks at 7-3 and the San Francisco 49ers at 7-4.
After Sunday, a win in each of the two following weeks against the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals would increase the division title odds by around 5 percent each. Of course, the big date left on the calendar is the Week 16 rematch with the Seahawks on “Thursday Night Football” in Seattle. If the Rams were to win every game between now and then — over the Buccaneers, Panthers, Cardinals, Detroit Lions and then the Seahawks — the division title odds will be at 99 percent. And the odds of landing the No. 1 seed with that same path would go to 84 percent.
It’s hard to win every game, of course, and that’s true for the Rams as well as the Seahawks. So, the model suggests that if they lose the rematch to Seattle and win the remainder games, their odds of a division title are still at 99 percent, because it would mean the Seahawks can’t lose another game either.
The biggest shift in the simulator seems to hinge on whether the Rams can post a winning record in the final seven games. At 4-3, with a win over the Seahawks, the division title odds are at around 70 percent. At 3-4, even with a win in Seattle, those odds drop to around 25-30 percent.
The model is based on 4,000 simulations of the games to come, with data inputted from what’s already happened through 11 games. It gives the Rams a 7 percent chance of winning out to finish 15-2. The most likely scenario is that the Rams finish 13-4. But the model gives them a 65 percent chance of finishing 13-4 or better.
The simulator is reacting to the Rams’ recent surge. Their odds of finishing with a winning record in the final seven games are 88 percent. And their odds of reaching the playoffs, winning the division and acquiring the No. 1 seed have never been higher this season.
As for whether they will, several factors weigh in the balance. It’s easy to get both bullish on the Rams’ positioning and to have cause for concern.
On the positive side, the Rams have shown impressive growth in three areas that doomed them in their two losses this season, to the 49ers and to the Eagles. For one, both games featured blocked field goals in narrow outcomes, and Joshua Karty lost his job in Week 10 after leading the league with eight missed kicks. Newly signed Harrison Mevis has at least looked steady on his nine extra-point attempts, with newly signed long snapper Jake McQuaide settling some of the laces issues that impacted Karty’s kicks.
Add in a decrease in penalties and the play of Ethan Evans, who arguably won the Seattle game with his 50-yard boot downed at the 1-yard line to protect a two-point win, and the special teams unit has gone from costing games to creating a positive impact in the past two weeks.
But it’s a small sample size. The likelihood over the next seven weeks is that one of those games will come down to the Rams needing to make a critical kick, and it’s a wild-card factor given that Mevis has yet to attempt one in an NFL game.
The outside cornerback group has gone from giving up big perimeter plays to the Eagles, Indianapolis Colts and 49ers to creating the types of plays that win games, like when Darious Williams and Cobie Durant secured interceptions of Sam Darnold and Emmanuel Forbes Jr. broke up a touchdown pass to force a field goal against Seattle. The Rams also expect to get top option Ahkello Witherspoon back from a broken clavicle in the next three weeks, which would add to a room that traded for Roger McCreary to make it one of the deepest units on the roster.
But a big part of the secondary’s improvement has been the Pro Bowl-quality play of Quentin Lake in the “star” position that floats from nickel cornerback to free safety to strong safety and has blurred the Rams’ dime looks. Lake suffered an elbow injury against the Seahawks and was placed on injured reserve on Wednesday.
“Not great for our captain and leader,” McVay said. “I’m bummed out for him.”
The third area of improvement has been in ball security for the running backs. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum combined for three fumbles in the first five games, and Williams lost one while running into the end zone against the 49ers that could have won the game in regulation. The Rams increased their emphasis on ball security in practice, and in the five weeks since, those two have combined for 137 touches without putting the ball on the ground.
But, again, it’s a small sample size. Williams has fumbled 11 times in his four-year career between the regular season and postseason and will have to remain focused on that part of his game.
The biggest reason for optimism with the Rams resides at the most important position. According to Kalshi and BetMGM, Matthew Stafford is the betting favorite to win his first MVP award right now, thanks to throwing a league-leading 27 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Over the past seven games, he’s thrown 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions. It coincided with the emergence of Davante Adams in the red zone, and he’s scored in four straight games and now leads the league with 10 touchdown catches.
But Sunday against Seattle showed that the pair can still have an off game against the right defense. Adams caught a touchdown but finished with 1 yard on eight targets. Stafford had just 130 passing yards on 4.6 yards per attempt, his worst marks in any game this season.
Los Angeles has shown recently that it can win in a variety of ways, from Stafford posting NFL records to the secondary intercepting four passes in a game to the pass rush showing dominant flashes. It allows for games like Sunday’s, where one of the strengths can be off and it’s still enough to emerge victorious.
But to get where the Rams really want to go this year with a home playoff game, they’ll have to continue to play this type of complementary football.
“What I do like is I think there’s the humility and the understanding of what it takes one day at a time to continue to stack those days,” McVay said. “That’s what’s served us well to be able to get to 8-2 through 10 games. If you told me that the season ended right now and the playoffs started, well then there we go.
“But we have a long way to go. … We want to peak at the right time.”