Specifically, Intel itself has said it plans to start making chips on its next-next-gen 14A node (the one that comes after the actual next-gen 18A process due later this year) in 2028 or 2029. While that may seem a while off, Rasgon thinks the ramp up time involved with getting a new process running means Intel has just 18 months from now to "land a hero customer on 14A" for its chip foundry business.

The issue here is that Intel recently made very clear that if it cannot land a major external customer, it will all be over for its cutting-edge manufacturing nodes. "If we are unable to secure a significant external customer and meet important customer milestones for Intel 14A, we face the prospect that it will not be economical to develop and manufacture Intel 14A and successor leading-edge nodes on a go-forward basis.

13 Comments

  1. If we loose intel it would be horrific for the pc space everywhere.

    No driver support so all pcs are looking at the landfill for servers even home eventually

    Then there communication/gpu sector

    Anyone that has been around pcs can see the impact of intel going under.

    Lets go intel stay alive

  2. ProfessionalCreme119

    I think there’s too much interest in letting Intel die and having it be gobbled up by one of the other tech giants. If that’s not true then the US govt would find a way to keep them going through contracts and supply purchases. But that doesn’t seem to be happening

  3. Apple will come to the rescue. They would love to have more than 1 supplier of chips. Right now, everything is in the TSMC basket.

  4. disposable_account01

    News leaked today about Nvidia’s N1X SoC. I think Intel might be cooked.

  5. Ludicrits

    Its sad to see people wishing for them to go under.

    We want competition in the space. It’s good for the consumer.

  6. Intel genuinely being cooked is great for billion dollar competitors, consumers not so much. Far from being dead as it is, we’ll see how it goes the next couple of years.

    They got their needed ass kicking, time to step it up (please keep selling ARC gpus).

  7. forcefivepod

    I’ve heard this from a chip tester there. They’re putting all of their eggs into this basket, and I really hope it works.

  8. WoodooTheWeeb

    We need intel so amd doesn’t go… Well, full intel. But all in all intel deserves everything it’s going trough

  9. splendiferous-finch_

    Industry analyst that’s betting against them?

    Not saying intel isn’t shitty just that the finbros usually do this to manifest what they want

  10. Unless they can get those chips into some massive sizes, their only chance is to get smartphone market. Smartphone market requires smallest chiplets, which is probably the only thing Intel will be able to make for their next gen chips for a foreseeable future. For AI chips, you need very large chips which are very hard to manufacture, and consumer CPU/GPU market is cutthroat and has very narrow margins.

  11. Intel must be the dumbest company on earth since everyone could see this coming for at least a decade now. I mean people were screaming for them to change their ways but we’re too busy with their heads in the sand.

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