Cheating in online games is a hot topic, and I wanted to dive into the real odds of encountering a "dirty" match in Warzone, where someone is cheating using a CSGO Talk as a reference.
The results are pretty eye-opening, especially when comparing the two games.
The CSChart: A Quick Recap
From a Valve Developer Regarding Cheats in CS:GO.
Source – "Robocalypse Now" Using Deep Learning to Combat Cheating in CS:GO — GTC version
In CS one is typically dealing with 5v5 matches (10 players total). If 3% of players are cheaters, then 3 out of 10 matches are likely to be dirty. This rule assumes a direct relationship between the percentage of cheaters and the likelihood of encountering at least one in your match.
But what happens when we apply this logic to a game like Warzone, which has up to 120 players in a single match?
Warzone: A Whole Different Beast
Warzone isn’t just a 5v5 match—it’s a massive battle royale with 50 players, and this drastically changes the probability of encountering a cheater. Let’s break it down with some examples at different cheater rates:
The Math:
- Cheater Rate (p): Let’s explore 1%, 2%, and 3% cheater rates.
- Number of Players (n): 50 players in a Warzone match.
The probability that at least one player in a match is cheating can be calculated using the formula:
P(dirty match)=1−(1−p)n
Where:
- P(dirty match) is the probability of at least one cheater in the match.
- p is the probability that any given player is a cheater.
- n is the number of players in the match.
Examples at Different Cheater Rates:
- 1% Cheater Rate: P(dirty match)=1−(0.99)^50≈1−0.605≈0.395
- 2% Cheater Rate: P(dirty match)=1−(0.98)^50≈1−0.364≈0.636
- 3% Cheater Rate: P(dirty match)=1−(0.97)^50≈1−0.223≈0.777
In CS with 10 players in a match and a 3% cheater rate, the chart suggests 3 out of 10 matches will be dirty. But when you jump to a 50-player Warzone match, even at a 1% cheater rate, you’ve got nearly an 40% chance of encountering a cheater. At 2%, it's over 50%, and at 3%, 77%.
Why the Difference?
- Player Count: CS has 10 players, so the impact of a few cheaters is smaller. In Warzone, with 50 players, even a small percentage of cheaters drastically increases the chances of encountering one.
The Takeaway
While in CS you might get a dirty match 3 out of 10 times with a 3% cheater rate, in Warzone, the odds skyrocket to nearly 80%. Even at a 2% cheater rate, you’re likely to encounter a cheater in more than 2 out of 4 matches. The larger the player count, the higher the odds making Warzone far more susceptible to dirty matches.
Here is for 120 Players Per Match.
EDIT: I'd say a pretty good solution in outlined in the Valve talk but who knows if Ricochet devs are doing any of that.
3 Comments
Cheaters affected me by me never playing Warzone again
Never thought about it in that way. I guess I shouldn’t take ressurgence as seriously, trying so hard to win doesn’t seem very smart if the likelihood of there being a cheater in the match is so high. Great analysis.
I am not sure how this post has not skyrocket. This is AMAZING data.