I've always wondered about the probabilities of Contract Rewards and how they vary between the threat levels. So I decided to complete 100 contracts in each Threat Level and chart my results.
Here is the Raw Data:
Hopefully, you can zoom in and see this
So, right off the bat, it seems as though Tier 2 is giving you an average of 2 items per contract, which is actually a large part of what makes the different Threat Levels "better". "Better" just means "more".
You might be interested in how likely Schematics are and I found that there is about a 13% chance of getting a schematic after completing a Tier 2 contract. However, that is very likely LARGER than the actual likelihood because, as you can see in Game 8 I got SUPER lucky with 3 back-to-back-to-back schematics.
What's more likely is that Schematics have a 10% chance of dropping during Tier 2 contracts (That's what my data was supporting before that lucky game, and that's what my Tier 1 contract testing found out too).
In terms of what schematics I actually got well, here they are.
Yup, those perk cans are crazy common. Perks, Ammo Mods, 2 Plate Vests, and Blue/Green tools felt like they were the most common rewards I would get.
Here I sorted the graph from highest to lowest frequency.
Believe me I know 100 contracts is still not enough for anything really statistically relevant, but I can confidently say this is approaching the real numbers.
When it comes to things like the Legendary Tools, Pack 3 Crystals, etc. I would be willing to bet that those items have a less-than-1% chance of dropping in Tier 2. Those seem to be the "hype" drops that keep players gambling on those contracts (it works on me that's for sure).
You might be asking yourself, "Are rewards affected by the type of contract you do or by how quickly you do them?"
Unfortunately, no. There doesn't seem to be any correlation between the contract type, or time to complete the contract and their rewards.
If you want to see all of the percentages I found, here you are!
Obviously % per contract is easy because there was only 100 contracts…
But if you take a look at all 208 rewards and figure out their percentages, it looks like this.
As you can see, perk cans accounted for nearly 1/3 of all of my rewards, whereas the rare things like Legendary Tools and Pack 2/3 crystals amounted to less than 0.5% of my total rewards.
Other than that, some fun facts about this is that the loot pool is larger than it was in Tier 1. You get a higher chance of Monkeys/Kazimirs, 2/3 Plate Vests, Medium/Large Rucksacks, etc. Self revives are still guaranteed at the first contract if you are solo.
Strangely, Pack 1 crystals are less common in Tier 2 than they were in Tier 1. Even when combined with the Pack 2 and Pack 3 Crystal, Pack-a-Punch crystals were overall more common in Tier 1 than in Tier 2. Very strange.
All of this data was collected during Season 2 Reloaded and it took about 9 games total.
Here are all of the graphs/charts (and more) if you want to look at them in more depth!
If you have any feedback, please let me know! This was incredibly fun!
1 Comment
You should seperate out the schematics and guarenteed self revive kits, showing the odds of the regular items per reward slot and per contract. Schematics, guarenteed solo self revive kits, and sigils seem to not be pulled from the same pool of items.
Schematics are squad based and contract based. Your whole team will get the same schematic as you in the reward rift if you get one (this is different in the red worm rift, for anyone wondering). It is contract based since the contract determines whether or not you get a schematic, not the individual reward slots. That is why the only times you can get more than 3 items is if you obtained a sigil, schematic, or guarenteed self revive kit. This is also why you never get more than one schematic in the rift and it is always the furthest right reward (except when you get a guarenteed self-revive kit).
When you do the high threat zone, you will need to add one more column in case you get 6 rewards (three regular items, a schematic, a sigil, and a guarenteed self revive kit).