I used a demo parsing program to calculate the xR (Expected Rounds) statistics for the Liquid vs Spirit match.
What is xR?
xR (Expected Rounds) is the sum of round-win probabilities for each team based on the state of the game (economy, player positions, utility, etc.). If a team "overperforms" their xR, it means they won rounds they weren't favored in — or vice versa.
Map 1
- Liquid: 7 wins | xR 8.421 | diff −1.421
- Spirit: 13 wins | xR 11.579 | diff +1.421
Liquid actually had a higher expected round count (8.4) than their actual wins (7), meaning they underperformed slightly. Spirit, on the other hand, converted more rounds than expected — a solid, clinical performance.
Map 2
- Liquid: 5 wins | xR 5.652 | diff −0.652
- Spirit: 13 wins | xR 12.348 | diff +0.652
Here the xR aligns almost perfectly with the result. Liquid's 5.652 xR vs 5 actual wins is basically a coin-flip difference. Spirit once again performed exactly at their expected level, if not slightly above.
Key takeaways:
- Spirit was the better team on both maps by xR, and the scorelines reflect that.
- Liquid's biggest underperformance was on Map 1 — they had ~8.4 expected rounds but only closed 7. A few 50/50 or slightly favored rounds slipped away.
- On Map 2, Liquid was simply outplayed. Their xR was only 5.65 across 18 rounds, showing Spirit dominated the game states.