Macau’s gaming revenue growth in May is now expected to slow to about 3–5 per cent with conditions likely to turn “tougher” in the coming months as comparisons become more demanding, said investment bank Jefferies.
In a research memo this week, the bank said Macau’s gaming revenue over the eight days ended 25 May averaged MOP656 million (US$81.2 million) a day, about 5 per cent lower week on week and 4 per cent below the month’s daily run rate, despite the Buddha’s Birthday long weekend on 23–25 May, which typically draws visitation from Hong Kong, the city’s second-largest source market.
Jefferies now sees May gross gaming revenue coming in at MOP21.8 billion to MOP22.4 billion, implying 3–5 per cent year-on-year growth, versus a market consensus of 6.3 per cent.
Month-to-date mass and VIP revenue were up 8–10 per cent and 10–12 per cent month on month, respectively, Jefferies said, while the VIP win rate was tracking below its normal range at 2.6–2.8 per cent.
“The indication is modestly negative for the sector, given the expectation of growth in May before more challenging comps in June,” the analysts wrote. “Our expectation that comparisons become increasingly challenging through 2026, which in part drives our measured enthusiasm.”
Separately, another brokerage Citigroup also cut its May forecast to about 4 per cent year-on-year growth, projecting MOP22 billion to MOP22.5 billion, after revenue for the first 25 days of the month totalled MOP17.9 billion.
Macau’s gaming revenue rose 12.1 per cent year on year to MOP85.77 billion in the first four months of 2026, following a 5.5 per cent increase in April, according to the local gaming regulator. The tally is about 86 per cent of the pre-covid level, compared with MOP99.74 billion over the first four months of 2019.
Two-year delay
Jefferies also pointed to what it described as a two-year delay in Macau’s economic diversification timeline. A draft of the government’s third five-year development plan for 2026–2030, published last week, targets lifting the share of non-gaming sectors in Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) to around 60 per cent by 2030 from 56.7 per cent in 2024.
“This effectively represents a two-year delay versus the earlier diversification target, as the Development Plan for Appropriate Economic Diversification (2024–2028), published in November 2023, had originally set the goal of reaching 60 percent non-gaming GDP by 2028,” the analysts remarked.