Growth in Macau’s gaming sector EBITDA is expected to accelerate in 2026 as operators focus more on cost optimisation and operational efficiency, investment bank UBS said in a research update.
UBS forecasts Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will grow about 5% year-on-year in 2026, while sector-wide adjusted EBITDA is projected to increase around 6% year-on-year after remaining largely flat in 2025.
The institution stated: “We continue to forecast 2026 GGR growth of 5 percent year-on-year, with growth to be weighted towards the first half of 2026 at circa 8 percent year-on-year, due to favourable base effects.”
The report expects growth to be stronger in the first half of the year before moderating later. UBS said GGR expansion could reach around 8% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 before slowing to roughly 3% growth in the second half.
Despite the improving outlook, UBS trimmed its 2026 EBITDA forecasts for Macau operators by about 2%, citing higher operating expenses recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Nevertheless, the brokerage said sector margins are expected to remain stable. “We expect margins to remain largely steady in 2026, supported by a steady competition environment and cost optimisation,” UBS said.
“This should drive an acceleration in sector luck-adjusted EBITDA growth to circa 6 percent year-on-year in 2026 (versus flat in 2025).”
UBS noted that gaming operators are increasingly shifting their strategic focus from property upgrades toward efficiency measures and better reinvestment management. The analysts added that technology deployment and premium accommodation capacity could support these efforts.
“Management indicates that these enhancements are enabled by the full deployment of smart tables and increased availability of premium suites, which should enhance customer profiling capabilities and improve promotional efficiency,” UBS said.
Premium gaming segments are expected to remain a key driver of revenue growth, supported by marketing initiatives, expanded suite offerings, and new hotel capacity across integrated resorts.
UBS said operators are also refining event strategies and operational approaches after several years of experience in the post-pandemic market. It added that licence-related spending commitments remain on track and could help support profitability levels.