When the clock hit zero Saturday at Duquesne’s UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse, the crowd rose to its feet as junior guard Trey Autry’s buzzer-beating 3-point attempt hung in the air, then rattled off the rim, sealing the Revolutionaries’ heartbreaking 88-86 loss.
It was a valiant effort from Autry and the Revs, who raced the ball down the floor and generated a clean look with just 2.5 seconds remaining. But the fact that the night came down to a miracle throw was no coincidence and instead was the latest symptom of a season-long flaw that has plagued the team: their inability to execute and close out games when the margin is razor thin.
Late-game lapses that force GW into last-second heroics have become the norm. The Revs have now lost six conference games by single digits, a trend underscored by the fact that the team has yet to win a game when trailing at halftime and hasn’t secured a single victory since early November.
That pattern is reflected in KenPom’s “Luck” rating, which measures the gap between a team’s record and its expected winning percentage and ranks GW dead last among 365 Division I programs. In other words, for a team as talented as the Revs, they should have a much, much better record than 13-11.
While the injury to star forward Rafael Castro, the team’s leading scorer, has hampered the Revs over the past three games, the issue runs deeper than his absence. As was the case against Duquesne, prolonged scoreless stretches in the final minutes of games have plagued GW all season.
In the team’s Jan. 19 loss to George Mason, the two squads were knotted at 60 with just four minutes left, but the Revs only scored 4 more points to close the game as the Patriots closed out a 69-64 win.
After a 3-pointer from Autry just before the 4:00 minute mark, the Revs had two trips to the line but knocked down just one shot each, leaving 2 points behind. George Mason responded with a 3-pointer to take a lead and the Revs had no answer, turning the ball over on their next possession.
Down 3 points with 17 seconds left, the Revs never got a shot off, turning the ball over once again.
These frustrating losses have become commonplace. Poor execution and missed shots have beset the Revs as they’ve lost six of their last seven games. While KenPom might call it luck, this pattern is far from a coincidence.
On Jan. 27, the Revs faced off against Saint Louis, who, with their now-23-1 record and No. 19 AP poll placement, looks like the best A-10 team this side of the pandemic. The Revs had the opportunity to rewrite the fortune of their season with a major road win and, for a while, looked like they would pull it off.
Entering the break up 43-33, GW’s talent was clear. They had the shooting, pace and size to match up against one of the best teams in college basketball. But they let the opportunity slip through the cracks because they couldn’t execute when it mattered most.
Up 1 point with two minutes left, the Revs allowed Billikens star Robbie Avila to knock down two late 3-pointers, including one with just three seconds left while only scoring 2 points themselves. An opportunity to prove themselves as an A-10 contender and pick up their first ranked win since 2015 became another would’ve, could’ve, should’ve moment.
Now at ninth in A-10 standings — five spots below their preseason poll placement — GW is in a difficult position, but not all hope is lost.
As was shown against Saint Louis and in the first few months of the season, there’s real talent on the roster, with a dominant big man in Castro and versatility and experience surrounding him. And that belief isn’t rooted solely in Castro’s presence. Autry has proven to be a hardy offensive guard, while redshirt junior forward Garrett Johnson is one of the conference’s best shooters.
If these late game issues can be cleaned up, especially once Castro returns, the prospect of entering March’s championship with a winning record isn’t gone yet.
Head Coach Chris Caputo sits in the middle of a team huddle during a game against the University of Delaware in December. (Arwen Clemans | Senior Photo Editor)