What should have been a fantastic matchup between two 14-3 teams from the regular season took an unexpected twist.
Late in the Denver Broncos’ overtime win over the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round, quarterback Bo Nix broke a bone in his ankle. He’s done for the rest of the season, and will be replaced by Jarrett Stidham for the AFC championship game against the New England Patriots. Stidham will be the first quarterback since Joe Webb for the 2012 Minnesota Vikings to make his first start in the playoffs without throwing a pass during the regular season. He’ll be just the second quarterback to make his first start of the season in a conference championship game, joining Roger Staubach who did it with the 1972 Dallas Cowboys. Stidham will be the first to make his first start of the season in a conference championship game without attempting a pass in the regular season.
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It’s an unprecedented situation. And it has changed the scope of a strong matchup, also overshadowing a New England team that has had a remarkable turnaround after going 4-13 in each of the past two seasons. The matchup suddenly became Drake Maye, who will finish first or second in the NFL MVP voting this season, against Stidham, whose last pass came at the end of the 2023 regular season. One way or another, it will be a memorable AFC championship game.
Previous meeting this season
The Broncos and Patriots haven’t met since 2023. The teams do have some AFC championship game history. The Broncos, with Peyton Manning, hosted Tom Brady and the Patriots in AFC title games at the end of the 2013 and 2015 seasons. The Broncos won both, winning 26-16 the first time and 20-18 in the second meeting.
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Health update
Everyone knows by now that the Broncos will be without quarterback Bo Nix. There was some other key Broncos injury news this week, as the team opened the practice window for running back J.K. Dobbins, who hasn’t played since Nov. 6 due to a foot injury. He would help an offense that will be without its starting quarterback, though there’s no guarantee Dobbins will be able to play. The Patriots’ injury report is fairly clean, but cornerback Carlton Davis III is in concussion protocol via ESPN’s Mike Reiss.
The head coaches
The NFL’s final four has four elite coaches. Mike Vrabel could win NFL Coach of the Year for turning around the Patriots this season. Sean Payton would be a fine pick too, after leading the Broncos to the No. 1 seed. The Broncos traded for Payton before the 2023 season and he has gone from eight to 10 to 14 wins in his three seasons in Denver. Vrabel’s expertise is defense while Payton is an offensive guru, which adds to a fantastic coaching matchup.
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Key player for the Patriots
Marcus Jones has the ability to turn a game by making a play in many ways. This season he has emerged as a very good slot cornerback, and might need to play an even bigger role on defense if Carlton Davis III is out (concussion). His pick 6 last weekend against the Texans helped the Patriots take control of that game. Jones is also a phenomenal punt returner; his 14.3-yard average is best in NFL history. Jones hasn’t taken any snaps on offense this season but has in the past, and had a 48-yard receiving touchdown as a rookie in 2022. On this big stage, the Patriots might have a trick play ready for Jones, who has unquestionable game-breaking ability.
[Get more Patriots news: New England team feed]
Key player for the Broncos
This section could be the entire Broncos defense. There’s little mystery here: A team that will be playing with a rusty backup quarterback not only needs to play well on defense, it needs to make a big play or two. We’ll single out cornerback Pat Surtain II, who is the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year. He doesn’t get a lot of passes thrown his way as a shutdown corner, but the Patriots also don’t have one alpha receiver he’ll need to shadow. Whether it’s Surtain, Riley Moss, Alex Singleton or one of the Broncos’ defensive linemen, someone is going to have to make a key play or two to overcome the loss of Bo Nix.
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[Get more Broncos news: Denver team feed]
Betting market watch
Most sportsbooks had Denver as a short favorite on the lookahead lines for the AFC championship game and reopened with the Patriots as a 4.5-point favorite after news that Bo Nix was lost for the season. That line got bet up to -5.5 at some books. Is the dropoff to backup Denver QB Jarrett Stidham really worth 6 or 7 points? “I personally don’t think it should be this much,” one oddsmaker told Yahoo Sports. “I wouldn’t be surprised if this line closes around New England -3.” Not surprisingly, the public is all over the Patriots, but watch out for the total, which has seen sharp action push it from 40.5 up to 42.5. — Ben Fawkes
Check out more of Ben’s work at the Yahoo Sports betting hub.
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Prediction
Sean Payton didn’t seem distraught as he announced Bo Nix’s injury. He simply said the Broncos will rise to the challenge, and that Jarrett Stidham is ready. “Watch out,” Payton said. “Just watch.” Part of that has to be projecting confidence so the team can follow his example because the Broncos have no choice but to stay optimistic. But Payton seems to believe in Stidham, who was a priority free agent for the Broncos in 2023 (Payton’s first offseason in Denver) and was re-signed when he was free again this past offseason. The Patriots are a very good team. Drake Maye will be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL for years to come. They’re favored in this game for a reason. But don’t underestimate Payton’s ability to get his entire team ready, Stidham included, when everyone is counting them out. Denver still has a top-end defense and a legitimate home-field advantage. The Broncos will rally around Stidham, and they will play good football.
Broncos 20, Patriots 17