It is possible but unlikely. Let's look at it from these aspects:
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Valve's attitude: They have not officially announced the abandonment of Major Operations, and related concepts still remain in the game files. However, since the "Riptide Major Operation" in 2021, there has been no proper sequel. After the launch of CS2, the focus has been on engine optimization, map remakes, and mode adjustments.
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Existing alternatives: In 2025, they launched the "Arsenal Pass" and "Synthesis Major Operation," etc., focusing on skin exchange and synthesis, with no new maps, agents, or core gameplay. These are more like lightweight activities rather than the comprehensive content updates of traditional Major Operations.
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Core obstacles: Major Operations have high development costs and long cycles; Valve prefers frequent small updates and community content integration to reduce risks and maintain popularity.
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Probability assessment: In 2026, it is highly likely to continue the lightweight model of "Pass + Synthesis"; if a proper Major Operation is launched, it might be during a Major tournament, and it would require a strategic shift by Valve.
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Based on the work frequency of Valve employees and the update frequency, it is basically impossible for a Major Operation to be released in the next few years.