It’s a make-or-miss league, and so much of the reason the Pacers have unexpectedly extended the Thunder to a seventh game has been that the Thunder have simply shot much worse than their regular-season averages.
Bizarrely, an Oklahoma City team that played at a huge free-throw deficit all season has won three free-throw battles decisively. The Thunder have also won the possession battle, albeit by a lower margin than their norm, and are shooting just as well from 3 as the Pacers.
Alas, their three best players have been firing blanks inside the arc. Credit to the Pacers, who have forced OKC’s two All-Stars into a lot of tough middies and have used Myles Turner to almost totally neutralize Chet Holmgren in the paint.
Still, the deficits from their norms are pretty massive. In the regular season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shot 57.1% on 2-point shots, Jalen Williams shot 53.3%, and Chet Holmgren shot 54.7%. And through three rounds of the playoffs, those figures hardly deviated.
But in the finals? Those three are at 50.9%, 50.0% and 43.1%, respectively. Because that trio takes the vast majority of the team’s 2-point attempts, they account for the overall malaise of the Thunder offense inside the arc in this series.
Yes, Indiana’s defense has been a factor, but the “play better’ adjustment also looms large here. The Thunder’s three stars have had their share of good chances — the 7-1 Holmgren missed an open dunk in Game 6! — and just need to convert more of them.
Either that … or shoot more 3s. The 2-point struggles have been unsecured by the fact the Thunder have only taken 27 3-pointers per game, a far cry from the 38.9 they launched in the regular season, thus leaving Oklahoma City even more dependent on 2-point accuracy than ever.
So while I have my eye trained on Holmgren, in particular, to see if he can end the slump, I’m also watching the Thunder rotation and wondering about Isaiah Joe. The team’s most prolific 3-point attempter in the regular season has seen just 41 minutes of court time through five games. Could he Mark Daigneault’s X factor in the finale?