The Wisconsin Badgers had a brutal draw in 2025, facing eight opponents that were either ranked or ended the season ranked. That included Alabama, Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State, who all made the College Football Playoff.
In 2026, their schedule looks better on paper, but there are still some difficult challenges to come. Last week, we gave out Parts 1 and 2, breaking down the easiest games on the schedule, as well as some potential traps.
And, finally, we arrive at Part 3 in this venerable predictive series (Parts 1 and 2 are here and here), where I give you the four most difficult matchups facing Luke Fickell’s Badgers this fall. Let’s get right to it since camp is less than a month away now.
We have all observed several Lincoln Riley teams, stretching all the way back to Oklahoma, get anointed as special, only to come crashing down to Earth at some point. There’s little reason to suspect that an outlier will emerge for him in year 10.
But there’s also little question that a Jayden Maiava-led Trojans squad full of four and five-star talent won’t, at the very least, present a stiff challenge for Wisconsin.
It’s possible, perhaps likely, that Southern Cal will be ranked and Wisconsin won’t be when this game happens in late October. So, slotting it this high makes perfect sense.
While I think that Matt Campbell is a good coach who will very likely do well in State College, I can’t help but wonder how this marriage will go, and early returns have been mixed. He turned around a disastrous Cyclones program and forged it into a solid winner, but people seem to forget that his teams there were rarely a true contender in a decent but usually not great Big 12.
After a breakthrough 8-win season in year two, here are his losses: 5, 6, 3, 6, 8, 6, 3, 4. Let’s not pretend this guy is Curt Cignetti.
But Rocco Becht is a really good college quarterback, and there’s reason to believe that the Nittany Lions will find some success this season. I feel very confident saying that a Wisconsin win here would be a major breakthrough, and the Badgers will likely be double-digit underdogs while trying to secure their first victory in this series since 2013.
This might shock some of you, since the Irish will probably be a top-five team when they square off with the Badgers in Lambeau to kick the season off. And don’t get me wrong, Wisconsin will be sizable dogs in this game.
But in terms of the difficulty of the task, especially in light of recent trends, I’d rather face Notre Dame than the team I have No. 1 on this list, and it isn’t a coin-flip kind of margin.
In terms of national perception, this one has more value, but for what a win would mean for the program, the next one is slotted there for a reason.
Yes, I believe that beating Iowa in Kinnick will be tougher than dispatching Notre Dame in Lambeau, partially because opening games are traditionally unpredictable.
Going back a few games now, Iowa has absolutely owned Wisconsin. They’ve been tougher, more talented, and better coached, and the gap hasn’t been narrow. While there’s no star quarterback in Iowa City right now, they won’t need one in order to be a good team. Wisconsin will have to be FAR better on both sides of the ball to keep this one close, especially given that it’s a Halloween game.
If the Badgers can do this, it will be a great sign. Fingers (and toes) crossed.