The Denver Broncos went 11-2 in one-score games last season, tying an NFL record for the most one-score victories in a single season. Overall, the Broncos went 14-3 in 2025, including 12 comeback wins.
Each of those close wins built confidence, and quarterback Bo Nix was clutch in the biggest moments.
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“I think, honestly, as a head coach of a team and recognizing it was great to see us, compared to the year before, play very well in those one-score games,” coach Sean Payton said in March. “That’s a by-product of a little confidence, and it started, I think, in Philadelphia. If you pinpointed a couple of key games, every one of you guys would say, ‘Yes, that was an important moment.’ Not just for Bo, but for a lot of people. Then, pretty soon, if you are in that game next time, you feel like you can do it.”
Despite demonstrating an ability to close out close games, the Broncos probably can’t expect to replicate that level of success in 2026. Logically, Denver’s unlikely to have that many one-score games go their way in consecutive seasons, especially with such a tough schedule in 2026 (Payton’s quotes from March came before the NFL schedule was finalized).
“Just go do the analytics, lopsided in your favor one-score games, which certainly 11 of 13 would be, and then track the next season,” Payton said. “There is nothing that … that is why I said to you that I never feel good. You are always understanding the next challenge. We have a tough schedule. We don’t know when we are playing these teams, but we are playing a real good schedule of teams that have been in the postseason.”
Payton, diplomatically, seemed to be implying that the math suggests the Broncos won’t have historic success in one-score games in consecutive seasons. He previously said he’s “not naive enough” to think some of the team’s one-score wins in 2025 couldn’t have swung the other way. This year presents a new challenge and a new schedule for Denver, and it would be extremely difficult to repeat a 14-3 campaign.
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The Broncos still have high expectations, though, and winning the AFC West and securing the highest possible seed in the conference remain their top priorities. Not every game will go Denver’s way, but Payton’s squad gained confidence from the 2025 campaign, and they’ll look to keep the momentum going this fall.
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This article originally appeared on Broncos Wire: NFL: Broncos know one-score wins will be hard to replicate in 2026