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The Philadelphia Phillies go for the road series sweep today when they play the Pittsburgh Pirates in an exciting pitching matchup.
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Paul Skenes and Zach Wheeler take the mound today, which has the MLB odds expecting a fairly low-scoring game.
My Phillies vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks explain why it’s what happens after they depart that will decide this one for the road underdogs.
Who will win Phillies vs Pirates today: Phillies moneyline (+120)
Paul Skenes will dominate the Philadelphia Phillies today… and then he’ll hand the ball to a bullpen with a league-worst 7.09 ERA over the past two weeks.
That will be the difference in this game.
Philly’s pen has a league-best 2.76 xFIP in that same span, with a 2.30 ERA. They also got a full day’s rest yesterday.
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The Pittsburgh Pirates have a GB rate of 46.4% the past two weeks, the sixth-highest in the league, and Zach Wheeler’s sinker/splitter combo has induced ground balls at a 46.5% clip.
Wheeler and his pen will outlast Skenes and his.
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COVERS INTEL:
Kyle Schwarber will likely struggle vs. Skenes’ arsenal today, as he’s posting a 40.4% whiff rate vs. breaking balls and a 43.9% whiff rate against offspeed pitches.
Phillies vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-130)
Skenes is dominating opponents behind a filthy arsenal and impeccable control. His 1.26 BB/9 and .183 BABIP lead the majors, and his 1.85 xERA is 0.62 runs better than any other qualified pitcher.
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He’s also controlled this Philly lineup. In 38 appearances, they’ve posted a .081/.108/.213 split while striking out 11 times.
Skenes should rack up plenty of punchouts against a Philly lineup with the fifth-highest chase rate over the past two weeks, swinging at 37.1% of pitches outside the zone.
He and Wheeler will limit scoring enough to stay under the total.
Jason Ence’s 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 5-10, -5.94 units
Over/Under bets: 10-5, +4.74 units
Phillies vs Pirates odds
Moneyline: Phillies +127 | Pirates -133
Run line: Phillies +1.5 | Pirates -1.5
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+122) | Under 7.5 (-127)
Phillies vs Pirates trend
The Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.15 Units / 47% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Pirates.
How to watch Phillies vs Pirates and game info
Location
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Date
Sunday, May 17, 2026
First pitch
1:35 p.m. ET
TV
NBC Sports Philadelphia, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Phillies starting pitcher
Zack Wheeler
(2-0, 2.55 ERA)
Pirates starting pitcher
Paul Skenes
(6-2, 1.98 ERA)
Phillies vs Pirates latest injuriesPhillies vs Pirates weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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