The overall No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils fell behind 16-seed Siena by double digits on Thursday, and while the Blue Devils came back to win 71-65, Duke was never within shouting distance of covering the 28.5-point spread. The Blue Devils will take on 9-seed TCU on Saturday, and opened as a double-digit favorite.
Underdogs went 10-6 against the spread on Thursday, including six outright wins, leading to some big spreads for Saturday’s games.
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Below you’ll find the favorite wagers for Saturday’s Round 2 games from our college basketball handicappers — Corbie Craig, Matt Jacob, Matt Russell and Frank Schwab.
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All odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Best bets for Saturday’s Round 2 games
(9) TCU vs. (1) Duke (-11.5, 139.5)
Russell: How much more do we need to see? Duke isn’t the same team without Patrick Ngongba and Caleb Foster.
What team would be able to play at the same super-high standard that the Blue Devils set for themselves, without two crucial starters?
We’ve got four data points of what Duke is without those two, and they’re fundamentally an under-sized, shallow, quality tournament team. The issue is that the Blue Devils are still rated in the betting market like one of the top four teams in the country.
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By comparison, TCU just played Kansas on a (debatably) neutral court in Kansas City and the line was -5.5, with the Horned Frogs covering the spread by the hook. Nothing in Duke’s four games (1-3 ATS) without Ngongba and Foster should make us believe they’re performing at Kansas’ level, let alone 5.5 points higher.
So, using point spread math, there has to be value on a TCU team that will match up much better with Duke in the paint than Siena did.
Bet: TCU +11.5
No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Houston (-10.5, 143.5)
Schwab: Houston had no trouble in the first round, beating Idaho 78-47 in a game that could have been an even bigger blowout if the Cougars wanted. Texas A&M is much better than a Big Sky team, but the Cougars can impose their will on anyone. Watch out for Houston moving forward.
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Bet: Houston -10.5
No. 11 Texas vs. No. 3 Gonzaga (-6.5, 147.5)
Russell: It feels like we see it every year, but rarely is the team in the role of “play-in problem” one that has the talent (and budget) of Texas. The Longhorns have taken advantage of a pair of porous defenses in NC State and BYU, and Gonzaga’s top-10 defense (by KenPom) will be more suffocating. However, 7-footer Matas Vokietaitas has taken a more involved role in the offense and is a tough matchup for the Zags. Plus, Texas has the athleticism and length of Dailyn Swain and Tramon Mark that will match up well with Gonzaga’s guards.
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With a line at THE WINDOW projected tighter than this one, there’s an easy case for why this game could come down to the wire, just so long as Texas has any legs left after a busy week with extensive travel.
Bet: Texas +6.5
No. 11 VCU vs. No. 3 Illinois (-11.5, 151.5)
Jacob: After a slow start that included countless bricks from the 3-point line, Illinois turned on the jets Friday and obliterated No. 13-seed Penn 105-70, easily covering the 25.5-point number. Solid win, for sure. But let’s be honest: The Quakers — who needed a pair of overtime wins just to steal the Ivy League’s automatic bid, and also suffered 25- and 27-point nonconference losses to Villanova and Providence — were grossly overmatched.
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VCU doesn’t fall into that same bucket. The Rams proved as much Thursday with their incredible 82-78 overtime upset of No. 6-seed North Carolina. Trailing 70-56 with barely seven minutes remaining, VCU stormed back and pulled off the biggest first-round comeback in NCAA tournament history.
Leading scorer Terrence Hill Jr. played 40 minutes and went off for a career-high 34 points while going 7-for-10 from the 3-point line. The sophomore guard is now averaging 21.5 points in four postseason games, and he’ll be handful for Illinois — as will the rest of the Rams, who are now riding a seven-game winning streak (part of a 22-3 run that dates to Dec. 15).
Through 34 games, only two teams have beaten VCU by double digits. Illinois won’t be the third.
Bet: VCU +11.5
No. 5 Vanderbilt (-1.5, 146.5) vs. No. 4 Nebraska
Schwab: The No. 5 seed is favored over the No. 4 seed, which is justified. Vanderbilt was underseeded by the committee. Nebraska got the first tournament win in school history and looked good, but don’t forget that the Cornhuskers struggled down the stretch in the regular season. The right team is favored here, even if the seeds wouldn’t indicate that.
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Bet: Vanderbilt -1.5
No. 12 High Point vs. No. 4 Arkansas (-11.5, 168.5)
Russell: We were able to sniff out High Point’s ability to hang with Wisconsin enough to say within the number, but the Panthers took it up a notch by pulling off the patented 12-5 upset of the Badgers.
Starting inside-outside duo Terry Anderson and Rob Martin each had a double-double, and so did Cam’Ron Fletcher off the bench, playing his most minutes (33) since a late-season injury.
With those three at full-speed, and Chase Johnston mixing in some of the wildest 3s you’ve ever seen in your life, the Panthers’ power rating in the betting market isn’t as high as it should be.
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As expected, the Razorbacks overwhelmed Hawaii physically, and were never in danger of being upset. Arkansas did have occasional lapses, though, allowing the Rainbow Warriors to give us a scare late in relation to the point spread.
Athletically more comparable to Arkansas, High Point will make the Hogs pay for any defensive lulls, and with a line this high, there’s plenty of room for the Panthers to scare Arkansas even without pulling off another stunner.
Bet: High Point +11.5
Completed games
No. 9 St. Louis vs. No. 1 Michigan (-12.5, 161.5)
Jacob: Part of me is concerned that the total in this game is a trap. A larger part believes that oddsmakers couldn’t possibly set this number high enough.
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Both Saint Louis (102 points) and Michigan (101 points) crossed the century mark in their respective opening-round blowout wins over Georgia and Howard. It was the eighth time that Saint Louis cleared triple digits this season, while the Wolverines have now accomplished the feat on nine occasions.
Surprise, surprise: The Billikens rank 10th in the nation in scoring, averaging 87.2 points per contest. The team slotted directly behind them? Yep, Michigan (86.8 PPG). Saint Louis has topped 80 points in 23 of its 33 games, and is 43rd in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom. The Wolverines have hurdled 80 points 25 times in 34 games, and are No. 7 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Also worth noting: Three of Michigan’s last five opponents have scored exactly 80 points (including No. 16 seed Howard on Thursday). Meanwhile, the Billikens’ last nine opponents have averaged 76.4 PPG — and none of those foes were as lethal as the Wolverines.
Pick: Over 161.5
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 3 Michigan State (-4.5, 151.5)
Jacob: I scored a relatively easy winner with Michigan State in the first round, as Sparty pounded No. 14-seed North Dakota State 92-67 as a 16.5-point favorite. Yes, things got a bit dicey near the end, with North Dakota State cutting a huge deficit down to 17 with two minutes to go — but Michigan State got there in the end.
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And I’m going right back to the Tom Izzo well in the Round of 32.
Granted, Izzo’s crew is just 2-2 SU and ATS in this round during this decade. But this year, he’s got a well-rounded roster that’s built for a deep tournament run. It’s led by junior point guard Jeremy Fears, who paces his team in scoring (15.5 points per game) and leads the entire nation in assists (9.2 PPG).
In fairness, Louisville has its own backcourt star in freshman Mikel Brown Jr., who is the Cardinals’ second-leading scorer (18.2 PPG) and assists leader (4.7). Problem is, Brown has missed five straight games with a back injury and won’t take the court Saturday.
Louisville (barely) got by without Brown in the opening round (83-79 win over South Florida). It won’t be as fortunate against Michigan State, which not only has a big backcourt edge but also a massive advantage on the glass. The Spartans are third in the nation in rebounding margin (+11 per game); Louisville ranks 40th (+5).
Bet: Michigan State -4.5